That is what JIRAMA, the state power and water utility, loses on every kilowatt-hour it sells. It costs about Ar 1,225 to produce one kWh and sells it for about Ar 795 . Over a year, that adds up to roughly Ar 1,030 billion, and the state covers it. On 23 October, Midi Madagasikara reported that JIRAMA's recovery plan makes a tariff increase "probable."

Every hour the lights stay on, the taxpayer pays part of the bill. Someone will pay the Ar 430: households and firms through tariffs, or the budget through subsidies. The IMF has said it prefers the first. The lead story below asks when, and how much.

On 22 October, the Anti-Corruption Court (PAC) suspended its cases against former President Andry Rajoelina, former Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and former Education Minister Sahondrarimalala. The files cover 36 kg of gold missing from the Mines Ministry, contracts for school desks, and the sovereign wealth fund. The PAC sent the question of who can judge former leaders to the High Constitutional Court (HCC) on 6 October. The HCC has one month to rule. The same week, President Michaël Randrianirina made a surprise visit to Ivato airport on 20 October and had three named officials moved at once. He then asked every minister to present an anti-corruption plan in public. The customs inspectors' union answered by rejecting "unverified" accusations.

One year into the "Refondation," fighting corruption is the government's main claim to legitimacy. These cases are the test. If former leaders can be tried in the normal anti-corruption court, the campaign has teeth. If the cases move to a special court for former leaders, they will probably move slowly. Investors and donors read this as a test of the rule of law, not of politics.

There is a strong case that the pause is good news. Asking the HCC first means any future verdict cannot be thrown out later on a technicality. That is what a serious justice system does. We agree the pause is the right legal step. But the rest of the week shows the risk. Surprise visits and public pledges are signals. They show intent, but they cost little and they make headlines. What changes the business climate is rules: fewer cash payments at the airport and at customs, digital procedures, and court verdicts. Without those, the open conflict with customs staff can slow clearance at the border, and importers pay for that first.

Worth watching: The HCC ruling, due by early November. Then: whether any of the three cases reaches a hearing before the end of the year, and whether the Ivato visit is followed by a procedure change (for example, digital payments at the airport authority), not just transfers.

The National Assembly opened its budget session on 20 October and has 60 days to vote the 2027 finance law (LFI 2027). With no Senate, the Assembly decides alone; if it misses the deadline, the government can pass the budget by ordinance. The same week, the World Bank and the government launched a review to speed up 21 ongoing projects, and the IFC, the Bank's private-sector arm, proposed four technical missions on SME finance, agriculture, energy and tourism. The reason is clear: only 20.3% of donor-funded investment has been spent this year. Every month a project stays stuck, the money is not lost, but the roads, water and power lines are delayed. Builders and suppliers wait for contracts. Worth watching: the tax measures in the LFI 2027. The IMF wants more revenue, and net tax collection was only 45.6% of the yearly target by end-June.

The donors' move says more than the announcement. When a lender sets up a review to speed up its own projects, the money is approved but not reaching the ground; only about a fifth of donor-funded investment has been spent this year. Madagascar's constraint for 2027 is not money. It is the state's capacity to spend it. The ordinance fallback also means the Assembly has less power over the budget than its 60 days suggest.

Worth watching: Three lines in the budget: new tax measures, the JIRAMA subsidy, and the investment target compared with what was actually spent in 2026.

On 22 October, the BFM reference rate was Ar 4,586 for one dollar and Ar 5,050 for one euro. That is about 0.9% weaker against both since 14 October. Since late March, the dollar has gained 10.0% against the ariary and the euro 6.5%. A weaker ariary makes rice, fuel and machines more expensive, which adds to the price pressure in the energy story above. Exporters paid in dollars, such as clove houses (exports up 197% in the first half of 2026, BFM) and nickel, gain a little. Worth watching: the September inflation figure from INSTAT, still not published.

One dollar cost Ar 4,586 on 22 October, 10% more than in late March. Nickel jumped 4.1% on 21 October on talk of output cuts in Indonesia, then gave most of it back. Vanilla remains cheap. Cloves are the exception: exports were up sharply in the first half of the year.

A currency is held up by what a country sells abroad. Two of Madagascar's biggest earners, nickel and vanilla, are both weak, and cloves alone cannot carry the ariary. The likely path is a slow slide, not a rebound. That feeds straight into the fuel and power bills above, because both are paid in dollars. Exporters gain a little. Importers and households pay more.

Worth watching: September inflation from INSTAT, still not published, and the lychee season in November, the next big source of export dollars.

JIRAMA's recovery plan points to a tariff rise. Earlier commitments to the IMF included increases of 20% in 2026 and 16% in 2027 . Fuel is the second price. Since 5 October, petrol costs Ar 5,300 a litre and diesel Ar 4,860, and the Prime Minister says both stay unchanged "at least until December." But the Energy Ministry says the import price of diesel alone, before transport and taxes, is already above Ar 6,000 a litre. The IMF wants the automatic fuel-price formula fully back by January 2027. The third price is the ariary. A weaker currency raises the cost of the imported fuel that runs JIRAMA's generators and fills the pumps.

All three decisions fall in the same window, December to early 2027, just before the constitutional referendum planned for mid-2027. Electricity is already 50–60% of costs for some industrial firms, according to industry groups. Simple maths shows the size of the gap: even 20% then 16% would take the tariff from Ar 795 to about Ar 1,107, still below today's Ar 1,225 cost.

There is a hopeful reading. Supply is improving: the Antananarivo grid deficit fell from 44.9 MW in September 2025 to 23.5 MW in September 2026, with 15.2 MW forecast for October. Fewer power cuts mean less costly emergency diesel, so JIRAMA's costs could fall and the tariff rise could be smaller. That is possible, but it is not the likely path. Much of the new supply comes from rented and imported generators that burn imported fuel, priced in dollars.

Our view: a power tariff rise in 2027 is close to certain, and a fuel price rise in January is likely. The real question is timing. A government that calls this a "social crisis, not a political one" will not want both rises in the same month before a vote.

Worth watching: The JIRAMA subsidy line in the 2027 budget. A large subsidy means the government is delaying the tariff. A small one means the rise is coming early in 2027.

Madagascar is preparing for the Russia–Africa economic forum in Moscow on 28–29 October, which the government presents as a chance to diversify its partners. Russia is already part of the energy story: in early October, JIRAMA was ordered to buy 18 generators from a Russian company. At the same time, Madagascar's biggest export link to the US, AGOA, runs to the end of 2028, and US money is backing new mining projects. Doing business with both is possible. The risk is in the details: what is signed in Moscow (energy, grain, mining) will be read in Washington as US officials prepare the 2027 AGOA eligibility list. Worth watching: any agreement signed in Moscow, and the USTR list expected between now and December.

For a country with few partners, more partners is a rational choice. Russia can supply generators and grain quickly and with fewer conditions. The risk is timing. The US is preparing its 2027 AGOA eligibility list, expected between now and December, and AGOA's rules exclude countries that act against US security or foreign-policy interests. A visit costs little. A signed deal on energy, mining or security would be read closely in Washington, at the moment the textile zones need their place renewed.

Worth watching: What Madagascar signs in Moscow, and the US list that follows.