While preparing the 2027 budget, ministries put forward 724 investment projects. Together they would cost Ar 28,680 billion. The state has about Ar 1,000 billion of its own money for them. That covers roughly 3.5% of what was asked, or Ar 1 for every Ar 29 requested.

Most of the rest will have to come from donors, or wait. That is why last week's story matters so much: donors have money ready, but only about a fifth of their 2026 project money has been spent. For Madagascar, the problem is less a lack of money than getting the money that exists spent.s and vanilla houses, gain a little. Households lose more.

The draft 2027 finance law, now before the National Assembly, assumes growth of 5.1%, up from 4.1% this year. Tax revenue is set at Ar 6,721.6 billion, 8% above the 2026 target. Total spending is Ar 20,825.6 billion, against Ar 16,543.7 billion of revenue including grants. That leaves a gap of about Ar 4,282 billion, or one ariary in five spent. Both bets look hard. Growth for 2026 has already been cut from the 4.8% first planned. By the end of June, the state had collected only 45.6% of this year's tax target.

The IMF's fifth programme review, which the finance ministry expects to prepare in November, and the JIRAMA subsidy line we flagged last week. The Assembly has until about 19 December to vote; after that, the government can pass the budget by ordinance.

On 28 October, the High Constitutional Court (HCC) ruled that the Anti-Corruption Court (PAC) can try former President Andry Rajoelina, former Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and several former ministers for corruption and related crimes. Six former officials are covered. The court drew a line. Acts tied to the job itself, such as high treason or serious violations of the Constitution, stay with the High Court of Justice. Corruption that can be separated from official duties goes to the ordinary anti-corruption court. The HCC also said that Rajoelina's loss of Malagasy nationality does not cancel his two terms in office. The three suspended cases, covering school-desk contracts, missing gold and the sovereign wealth fund, can now restart.

Last week we called the pause the right legal step and said the ruling was due by early November. It came in 22 days, ahead of the deadline. The ruling sets a precedent that outlives this government: former leaders can face the normal anti-corruption court, not only the special High Court of Justice.

This is a real gain for the rule of law, and investors should note it. The risk now moves to the next stage. Rajoelina is outside the country, so a trial may happen without him, and getting money back from abroad needs foreign courts to cooperate. There is also a timing risk. These trials will run during a political transition, before a referendum and an election. If they look selective, aimed only at the old regime, they will convince fewer people. The best proof of fairness would be the same rules applied to people close to the current government.

Worth watching: The first hearing dates at the PAC. Any request to freeze or recover assets abroad. Whether the missing-gold file is the first to reach a verdict, since it is the easiest for the public to understand.

President Michaël Randrianirina attended the Russia–Africa summit in Moscow on 28–29 October and met Vladimir Putin. Back in Antananarivo on Saturday, he said every minister who travelled with him had signed a cooperation agreement. The list includes an agriculture memorandum, two mobile health laboratories, more university scholarships, and a goal of about ten agreements in total. He also confirmed that military cooperation will grow. A memorandum with Russia's Eurasia group was signed as well. Reported figures for the money linked to it range from US$10 million to US$10 billion. That is a gap no one has explained, and a sign that the money is still vague. The President also showed interest in A7, a payment system Russia built to get around Western sanctions.

Look at the trade figures. Total trade between Madagascar and Russia is about US$50 million a year, mostly Russian wheat. Farm trade did grow 80% in the first nine months of 2026. Trade with France was €984 million in 2024, about twenty times more. The export zones that sell clothes to the United States under AGOA support about 400,000 direct and indirect jobs. This week, the export-zone employers' group asked US officials for a ten-year AGOA extension. The current one runs only to the end of 2028.

Having more than one partner is rational, and the President is right that Madagascar should not depend on one side. Memoranda cost little, and wheat, laboratories and scholarships are useful. But two items on the list carry real risk. The first is A7. A Malagasy bank that joins a sanctions-evasion payment network could lose its access to dollars and euros. Exporters, importers and the diaspora sending money home would pay first. The second is deeper military ties. AGOA eligibility is reviewed every year, and US foreign-policy interests are one of the criteria. The country is putting a market of hundreds of millions at risk for a market of tens of millions.

Worth watching: The full text of the signed agreements, and whether they are published at all. Any move by the central bank or a commercial bank toward A7. The USTR's 2027 AGOA eligibility list, expected by the end of the year.

On 31 October, the national airline dropped the "Madagascar Airlines" name and went back to "Air Madagascar." Management says the operating result went from minus US$0.7 million to plus US$3 million since May. The airline flies five ATR 72 aircraft and has reopened the Antananarivo–Mahajanga–Moroni route. But it still carries about US$100 million in debt, after the state cancelled roughly US$50 million of its claims, and it remains under court-supervised restructuring. The government has also approved buying a Boeing 737-700, paid for by the state. A familiar name helps with tourists and the diaspora. Reliable schedules will do more.

the cost of the 737 and how it will be financed, in the same budget that can pay for 3.5% of the investment it was asked for.